Discussion centers on low birth rates, pension issues, and a potential cross-Channel tunnel – population concerns in Jersey
Jersey Ponders Private Tunnel to France as Population and Economic Solution
In a recent panel discussion, the idea of a privately-funded tunnel connecting Jersey to France was proposed as a potential solution to the island's population, freight, and supply chain challenges. The identity of the individual advocating for this idea remains unclear, but several panelists have expressed support for the concept.
The high cost of childcare in Jersey, comparable to inner London, has been identified as a factor deterring parents from having more children or working. This issue has been a point of concern for many, including Deputy Kirsten Morel, who argues that the conversation about a tunnel should be seriously considered, despite it being 'knocked on the head' by the new government.
Deputy Morel, instead, advocates for making becoming a parent easier rather than incentivizing Islanders to have children. She suggests that the island should focus on addressing the high cost of childcare and other factors that make it difficult for families to thrive.
Murray Norton, another panelist, supports the tunnel idea, arguing that it could provide access to a workforce, skills, and freight. He suggests that the private sector could achieve such a project, making it a realistic solution for Jersey's challenges.
The potential impact on the Common Travel Area and tax residency has been raised as a concern by Deputy Lindsay Feltham. The feasibility and morality of government policies to increase birth rates have also been discussed during the panel.
Jersey's state pension age is increasing from 65 to 67 by 2031, with the age increasing by two months each year until then. This change, coupled with the current population being at its highest levels but having fewer children than needed to sustain the population and economy without inward migration, has raised concerns about the island's future demographic landscape.
In the first three months of 2025, there were 151 births in Jersey, a 13% decrease compared to the same period in 2024. This marks the third consecutive year that Jersey has seen more deaths than births. However, life expectancy in Jersey each year is on the rise, with current life expectancy at birth between 2021 and 2023 being 84.9 years for females and 81.3 years for males.
In contrast, there were 256 deaths in the first quarter of 2025, an increase of 15% compared to the previous year. This trend, along with the challenges in population growth, has led to discussions about the need for a clear, long-term goal or vision for Jersey's future planning.
Mr. Norton proposes a sustainable population of 116,000 to 118,000 as a possible aim for policymakers, suggesting the concept of a 'North Star' to guide Jersey's future planning. This idea has received support from many on the panel, who cite examples from San Marino and plans for the Orkney Islands as potential precedents.
Guernsey entrepreneur Martyn Dorey presented plans for an underground tunnel from Guernsey to Jersey and then to France last year, adding another layer to the ongoing discussions about the feasibility and potential benefits of such a project. As the conversation continues, Jersey's future planning remains a topic of great interest and debate.
